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Tagged: Senate confirmation process

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The Senate’s Influence over Supreme Court Appointments

Thanks, Sarah, for the warm welcome. It is a pleasure to guest blog this month.

With pundits already speculating about President Obama’s next Supreme Court nominee, it seems a good time to discuss relationships between political forces surrounding Supreme Court appointments and Justices’ decisions. Justices sometimes disappoint their appointing presidents, and ideologically-distant Senates are often blamed for presidents’ “mistakes.” For example, David Souter and John Paul Stevens turned out to be far more liberal than the Republican presidents who appointed them (Bush I and Ford, respectively). These presidents both faced very liberal Senates when they selected Souter and Stevens.

Are nominees like Souter and Stevens anomalies or part of a larger pattern of senatorial constraint? My recent article in the Hastings Law Journal offers the first empirical analysis of the Senate’s role in constraining presidents’ choices of Supreme Court nominees over an extended period. It considers ideologies of Senates faced by nominating presidents and measures whether the ideologies of these Senates predict Justices’ voting behavior. The analysis substantially qualifies earlier understandings of senatorial constraint.

Earlier empirical studies consider only limited numbers of recent nominees (see article pp. 1235-39). They suggest that the Senate has constrained presidents’ choices, and many scholars theorize that the Senate has enhanced its role in the appointments process since the 1950s. Analysis of a larger group of nominees shows the Senate’s ideology has had significant predictive power over Justices’ votes in only two isolated historical periods. Senatorial ideology was last significant in the 1970s, shortly after the filibuster of Abe Fortas’s nomination to be Chief Justice, but then it actually lost significance after the Senate rejected Bork in 1987.

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Looking Good for Kagan

On Monday, I suggested that the military recruiters/Solomon amendment issue had the potential to cause problems for Kagan’s nomination because of the hot-button issues it evokes — support for the military and gay rights. The issue has not gained significant momentum among Republicans, which is, of course, a positive sign for Kagan going forward. As Tom Goldstein noted yesterday:

Three days into the nomination, not much has changed.  No Democrat has opposed Elena Kagan; no Republican has endorsed her.  No Senator or serious commentator has suggested that she won’t be confirmed, or that the nomination should or would be filibustered.

Moreover, in yesterday’s The Caucus (New York Times), Carl Hulse reports on positive impressions of Kagan from two key Republican senators — Scott Brown and Susan Collins. Regarding the military recruiters flap, Brown stated (quoting from Hulse’s article), “It was very clear to me after we spoke about it at length that she is very supportive of the men and women who are fighting to protect us and very supportive of the military as whole. I do not feel that her judicial philosophy will be hurting our men and women who are serving.”

Senator Collins also spoke highly of Kagan and suggested that the chances of a Republican filibuster would be low. Collins specifically invoked the “extraordinary circumstances” standard for filibustering judicial nominees that was brokered by the Gang of 14 a few years back, stating, “At this point, I do not see the extraordinary circumstances that I use as a standard to determine whether to filibuster a nominee.”

With these remarks from two key Republican senators, you would have to think that Republicans will likely leave the Kagan nomination alone. There is always the possibility that another issue will arise or that existing potential problems will gain traction with Republicans. But given the lack of “buzz” over controversial issues in elite discourse, things are looking good for Kagan.

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Kagan and Executive Power

Much of the elite discourse regarding Kagan’s nomination has centered on the military recruiters/Solomon Amendment issue, Kagan’s lack of judicial experience, her scholarly record (some calling it rather thin), and her views on executive power. SCOTUSblog has summarized (see here as well) many of the immediate reactions. Conservatives are critical of the first two items, while many liberals are concerned about Kagan’s views on executive power, worrying she is too willing to grant the executive branch broad discretion in areas such as questioning terrorism suspects. In short, liberals worry that Kagan will propagate the Bush-Cheney vision of executive power.

David Fontana has written an interesting opinion piece in Politico about what we might expect from Kagan on issues of executive power. Fontana’s article will certainly not alleviate concerns that liberals have about Kagan.

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Will Republicans Filibuster Kagan’s Nomination?

Politics is messy and complicated, and it seems like it has gotten extra messy since Obama took office. On many issues on the political agenda, Republicans are united against President Obama. Killing bills requires that Republicans maintain their 41-member “opposition coalition” in the senate.

Tom Goldstein at SCOTUSblog discusses what we can expect from senate consideration of the Kagan nomination, both in terms of process and substance. A topic that hasn’t received enough attention, however, is whether the war between Obama and the Republicans will carry over to the Supreme Court nomination. Will Republicans filibuster Kagan’s nomination? With the midterm elections coming up and the congressional session ending in December, would it be tactically smart for Republicans to delay confirmation?

Some considerations:

1.  Republicans will likely pick up seats in the senate as a result of the midterm elections. Republicans may be thinking: Let’s make Obama nominate someone in a new political context in January — one that will likely be more favorable toward Republicans. Force his hand and make him renominate Kagan (or someone else) in, say, a 55-45 senate instead of a 59-41 senate. Obama might even back down and change his nomination.

2. What basis would Republicans rely on for delaying Kagan’s nomination? Answer: the military recruiters/Solomon amendment issue. I believe that this issue, if framed effectively by Republicans, could become a significant obstacle to Kagan becoming a justice. Think of the hot-button nature of this issue: pro- versus anti-military in the context of a continuing war on terror and the issue of the U.S.’s volunteer army having a hard time maintaining numbers.  Add to this one of the most polarizing issues in American politics: gay rights. Republicans could portray Kagan as anti-military and overzealous in her advocacy of gay rights. This portrayal of Kagan as an extremist on two hot-button policy dimensions would provide plenty of ammo to delay, and perhaps quash via the filibuster, her nomination. As a result, Obama would be forced to either renominate Kagan or find someone else who could muster the 60 votes necessary to proceed to an up-or-down vote.

3. What about the issue of having an 8-member Court? Having an 8-member Court for the start of October Term 2010 would benefit conservative interests. The Court would have 4 solid conservative votes, Kennedy (who has become more solidly aligned with the four more staunch conservatives), and the 3 remaining liberals. Having a vacancy on the Court would not bother Republicans on policy grounds. But if Democrats effectively emphasize the importance of filling a vacancy as soon as possible, perhaps Republicans would relent. As a side note, Justice Stevens could have made this vacancy issue moot had his retirement been conditional on the confirmation of his successor, which is what Justice O’Connor did (recall that she did not step down until Alito was confirmed).

While the chances of the Republicans delaying or even killing Kagan’s nomination are probably small, I believe it is a real and distinct possibility. Because of the fiery policy issues that it evokes, Kagan’s “military recruiters problem” provides an ideal vehicle for Republicans — if framed effectively — to wreak havoc on her nomination.

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Will Kagan be the Next Supreme Court Justice?

First, I’m thrilled to be guest blogging at Concurring Opinions. I look forward to an illuminating conversation regarding the Supreme Court’s next justice.

Mike Allen at Politico reports that, based on White House sources, Elena Kagan will be the next Supreme Court justice (thanks to Dave Hoffman for sending the story). Author of the reliable “Playbook” on Politico, Mike Allen is a force to be reckoned with. Of course, once word leaked that Kagan was the one, the White House sought to diffuse the rumors, claiming the president has not yet made his decision. This leads to speculation, of course, over whether the White House is floating a test balloon. They may want to test the reaction to hot-button issues like Kagan’s opposition to military recruiters at Harvard, which would undoubtedly be a dominant theme in a Kagan confirmation process.

My prediction for the next justice, which I realize is probably now incorrect given the latest developments, was Judge Diane Wood.  Back in December, Mike Sacks at First One at One First made a compelling case for Judge Wood. Above the Law also makes an in-depth argument for Wood. In addition, the New York Times had an interesting story a few weeks ago about Judge Wood’s persuasive abilities, at times even winning over her conservative — and legendary — colleagues, Judges Posner and Easterbrook.  That story further convinced me that Wood would be the one. President Obama may see her as a potentially persuasive force on a polarized Supreme Court. But she is widely perceived to be more liberal than Kagan, and she has an established judicial record. Though I will say that if a Kagan confirmation process turned almost completely on the military recruiters issue, then Kagan is going to be perceived as quite liberal and painted as extreme in her views. So in the end, who would really be perceived as more liberal once the confirmation process starts gaining momentum? Kagan or Wood?