Category: Empirical Analysis of Law

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Bar Passage & Accreditation: The “Neutral” Case Against Standards

rosin_2.jpgBack in August, the ABA withdrew proposed interpretive standard 301-6, which would have de-accredited schools that didn’t graduate students who passed their state bar at certain rates:

Under the first option, a school would have to show that in three or more of the most recent five years, in the jurisdiction in which the largest proportion of the school’s graduates take the bar exam for the first time, they pass the exam above, at or no more than 10 points below the first-time bar passage rates for graduates of ABA-approved law schools taking the bar examination in that jurisdiction during the relevant year. For schools from which more than 20 percent of graduates take their first bar examination in a jurisdiction other than the primary one, the schools also would be required to demonstrate that at least 70 percent of those students passed their bar examination over the two most recent bar exams.

Schools unable to satisfy the first alternative still could comply by demonstrating that 80 percent of all their graduates who take a bar examination anywhere in the country pass a bar examination within three sittings of the exam within three years of graduation.

The major critiques I saw of 301-6 focused on its alleged discriminatory effects:“all of the five ABA accredited law schools with the highest African-American enrollment (Howard, Southern, Texas Southern, North Carolina Central, and District of Columbia) would fail to meet the proposed interpretation.”I recently saw an interesting paper by Gary Rosin titled Benchmarking the Bar: No Unity in Difference Scores that seems to provide a race-neutral argument against the standard. From the abstract:

Under ABA proposed Interpretation 301-6, the primary benchmark used to measure the adequacy of a law-school’s academic program would be the amount by which is “local” Bar passage rate for first-takers differs from the overall passage rate for all first-takers from ABA-approved law schools. The study used generalized linear modeling as a method to compare Bar “difference scores” of ABA-approved law-schools in two states, New York and California. The study found that Bar difference scores in California were significantly more sensitive to changes in law-school relative LSAT scores than were Bar difference scores in New York. Bar difference scores – subtracting the “local” overall ABA Bar passage rate – do not fully adjust for variations in state grading practices, especially differences in minimum passing scores (“cut scores”) .

That is, because of state-to-state variation in slope of the bar passage curve, a standard that uses that curve as a predominant factor in accreditation decisions will have disparate effects. This seemed like an neat finding, but I wondered whether it is possible that the ABA (if it has to be the agency doing this) could correct for this slope problem using a weighting technique of some kind. I asked Gary, and he has kindly permitted me to quote his answer, after the jump.

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In Praise of Market Imperfections

You would expect to go out of business if you hired people without knowing if they could do the job. And, the same would be true if you had no reliable way of measuring if they actually were doing the job once they were hired. Law Schools do both of these. They would prefer to hire second tier students from elite law schools rather than top students form non elite schools. Yet, the empirical evidence I know of shows that the scholarly production of the non elites once hired is no lower than that of the elites. In fact, since law reviews use credentials as a basis for article selection, non elites may be actually outperforming elites. Do we have any reliable way to evaluate what the new hires do? Give me a break. We have faculty classroom visits announced ahead of time that result in evaluations that could have been written ahead of time – all positive given the propensity of law professors to shirk from institutional responsibilites. And we have student evaluations that largely reflect expected grades. On scholarship, we send the articles to a list of reviewers influenced by the candidate or just the regular suppliers of positive letters. Be grateful for market imperfections!

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Does the Phillies’ Pennant Mean It’s Good to be a Philadelphia Plaintiff’s Lawyer?

We_Believe--large-msg-119124344743.jpgI had the tremendous pleasure of attending yesterday’s 6-1 Phillies victory over the Nationals. In the ninth, the crowd learned of the Mets’ loss (and consequent, miraculous, Phillies clinching of the National League East pennant) about five minutes before the scoreboard posted that result, demonstrating the quick response time of social networks. I screamed my head off, and as a result will be hoarse for class tonight. Ironically, I’m teaching acceptance by silence.

But I didn’t put up this post just to gloat. That would be wrong.

Well after the game, I wondered about the interaction between sports victories and legal decision making. I know there are studies out there that correlate a home-team’s victory with a limited bump in local discretionary spending, and that overall wins (and teams) have negligible effects on economic growth. That makes some sense to me. But sports victories certainly have noneconomic effects. Wins change the atmosphere in cities (like Philadelphia) where there are tightly-connected urban communities. Just to relay an anecdote: this morning, on the subway, I observed someone actually give up their place to a woman transporting two small children. I don’t think that happens on an ordinary day in Philly.

Does winning matter for law? It’s not implausible, and it is relatively easy to test. I bet that jury awards today for prevailing plaintiffs are higher than average, and that judges are slightly less likely to grant summary judgment. (And visa versa. I would not want to open a civil case before a Queens jury today.) Civic noise certainly matters to legal decisionmakers: if the narrative around town is “the underdog has prevailed,” that has got to have some impact on the legal system. All of which is to say: plaintiffs lawyers able to choose cases might consider picking clients likely to go to trial in jurisdictions with winning local sports teams.

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The Efficient Sports Betting Market Hypothesis

800px-Greenwood_Betting.jpgReader CDP passes along a link to this interesting story from SportsInsights.com, sort of an intellectual’s Sports Book. The article summarizes some academic literature on the efficiency of the betting market in professional and college-level football games. It’s just a puzzle: the sports betting market, despite being quite liquid and well-researched, isn’t particularly efficient.

Finance professor Richard Borghesi, of Texas State, has done much of the recent work on the problem.

One recent paper shows that the “home underdog” effect is most robust late in the season, when the influx of naive bettors swamps the ability of sophisticated bettors to “fix” the line. Another paper suggests that the betting market is quite slow to react to new, odds-relevant, weather information.

Why do such inefficiencies persist? Borghesi argues that the market makers are crooked: bookies are deliberately taking advantage of bettors’ cognitive biases. Perhaps, but as Josh Wright argued here in response to a post of mine about consumer irrationality, such explanations don’t satisfy unless we’ve got a theory explaining why competitors don’t compete away the “irrationality premium.”

So what of the explanation that the late-season betting is “too heavy” with amateurs to remain rationally priced. This is odd too: the home-dog effect is is well-known, yet it persists as a good strategy. Given all that money lying on the table, why hasn’t Goldman established a private sports betting fund?

The only reason I can think of is that such interventions would be unlawful. Thus, restrictions on gambling, presumably in place to deter fraud, are in fact enabling exploitation of gamblers. We could test the hypothesis by looking at markets where gambling was totally lawful but which have very irrational fan bases. Does the home-dog effect pop up for premier league soccer games?

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Whatever

Blonde burris more compressed.JPGI’ve been working on a business for when I get tired of being a law professor. False memories. There’s a huge potential market. Everyone has missing pages in the scrapbook, things we’ve always wanted to do but never managed — that grand April affair in Paris, climbing K-2, or perhaps just nobly and diligently overcoming some childhood adversity. False memories have a bad name in law: we don’t like it when a victim remembers abuse that never happened, or an eye-witness realizes that the short Black defendant is the tall White gunman he saw pull the trigger. But why not harness that power for good? My idea is to help people recover detailed memories of things that, if you want to be technical about it, never actually happened. From the point of view of present emotional value, a false memory is just as good as a real one, so why confine your remembrance of things past to that poor parade of things that actually passed you?

Well I thought this was a pretty good idea, until last week, when a New York Times editorial reminded me that this sort of fantasy is already a mainstream business. Working in public health law, I should have realized a long time ago that most of what passes for the facts beneath our health policy are, in fact, things we know for sure that just ain’t so. (Wait, I just recovered a memory of having this precise insight fifteen years ago, during a magical week in Paris). Anyway, in this editorial, the Times catalogued the myths that shape health care politics in America today. Here’s a bit:

Seven years ago, the World Health Organization made the first major effort to rank the health systems of 191 nations. France and Italy took the top two spots; the United States was a dismal 37th. More recently, the highly regarded Commonwealth Fund has pioneered in comparing the United States with other advanced nations through surveys of patients and doctors and analysis of other data. Its latest report … ranked the United States last or next-to-last compared with five other nations — Australia, Canada, Germany, New Zealand and the United Kingdom — on most measures of performance, including quality of care and access to it.

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Law Review Forum at ELS Blog

The Empirical Legal Studies blog has hosted a great forum over the last few days, evaluating the Nance-Steinberg paper on law review submission practices. The first post is here, and there are eight others, featuring comments by Christine Hurt, Christopher Zorn, Ahmed Taha, and Ben Barton, among others, as well as the ELS regulars. It has been a remarkable discussion. Check it out.

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Docketology: Bigger, Better, and Under Submission

lottery5.jpgThis summer, I’ve been working to revise my co-authored paper Docketology, District Courts, and Doctrine, which I’ve previously talked about here, here, and here, and which the ELS blog highlighted here. The paper is finally updated. I think I’ve dealt with some of the major critiques we got from readers. In particular I spent a significant amount of time justifying the paper’s statistical inferences and in finding ways to demonstrate that an order-focused view of litigation may destabalize not only quantitative studies of trial court work but qualitative scholarship as well.

You can download it here (SSRN) or here (Selected Works). If you happen to be a law review articles editor, you will be getting a chance to read the paper whether you download it or not, as I’ve just today sent it out into the law review lottery. Here’s hoping my number comes up!

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Law (Professor) Blog Ranking

counting2.jpg[UPDATES IN RED] With the assistance of our intern, Sam Yospe, I decided to update the law blog ranking project first completed by Roger Alford at Opinio Juris. The following list ranks 41 law professor blogs according to traffic (as calculated by The Truth Laid Bear). To minimize distortion, we applied average monthly data, and ran the measurements about two weeks ago. This list only includes blogs that have at least one law professor as a regular blogger, and we exclude blogs that focus entirely on politics or current events, and blogs that are not tracked by Truth Laid Bear. Some blogs, like Patently-O, appear to be tracked only inconsistently by TLB and are not included in this list for the time being.

While this list ranks blogs by traffic, we have also included Truth Laid Bear’s own weighted rankings. TLB ranks blogs using an algorithm that accounts for a “link score,” a measure of how often blogs are linked to by other blogs. While the ranking by traffic that appears below and TLB’s ranking are related, the correlation appears to be statistically insigificant. For example, Bainbridge ‘s blog is ranked second by TLB amongst legal blogs. Yet, by traffic it ranks ninth. Conversely, Sentencing Law and Policy is the ranked third amongst all legal blogs in traffic, yet it ranked 2,164 by TLB, a lower ranking than some legal blogs that receive less traffic.

These data suggest that there is significant heterogeneity in the audience of legal blogs, as some blogs seem to have wide audiences of readers not shared by others, and (indeed) exist in entirely different communal spaces. This fractured audience finding challenges my flat traffic thesis. Importantly, this post does not intend to suggest a thing about the relative quality of the blogs ranked, nor those that are not mentioned. This isn’t even a popularity contest.

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Is Inequality Bad in Itself?

Incometo2004.jpg

As the AMT debate heats up, there are a lot of efforts to justify the trend in income distribution represented in the chart above (which appears to only be getting more pronounced). But few economists have chronicled the rise of inequality in America as insightfully as Robert Frank.

Twenty years ago, Frank’s groundbreaking Choosing the Right Pond focused on the importance of status in everyday life, eloquently documenting the hidden injuries of class. Ten years later, in The Winner Take All Society, Frank questioned the myths of merit so often used to justify high levels of inequality. He showed how technology could exponentially increase returns to “superstars” who were marginally (or perhaps not at all) better performers than “also-rans.” Frank’s Luxury Fever chronicled the disastrous effects of “spending cascades” unleashed by the new inequality: as the near-rich strived to emulate the ever-wealthier rich, so the middle class strived to emulate the near-rich, leading to extraordinary levels of indebtedness. Each book developed the theme of “positional competition“–the wasteful race for goods that are valued to the extent others are denied them.

Between these books, Frank has also published fascinating works on moral psychology (such as Passions Within Reason and What Price the Moral High Ground), and has formalized his insights in leading economics journals. In the tradition of Albert O. Hirschman and Jon Elster, Frank is one of few leading social scientists capable of enriching economic thought with philosophical, psychological, and sociological insight.

But Frank’s work has also attracted an array of critics. . . .

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Consent Decrees and Unintended Consequences

lapd.jpgRobert Parry of the LA Daily News has written a curious column about the relationship between legal rules and police behavior.

As Parry explains:

In the late 1990s, rogue Rampart Division CRASH officers provided the Los Angeles Police Department’s legion of critics with ammunition . . . to place their vaunted enemy under the oversight of a federal court . . . All complaints against officers are now thoroughly investigated and subject to triple audits — by the LAPD Audit Bureau, the inspector general and the consent decree monitor . . . Serious uses of force are double-investigated — one administrative investigation and one criminal one . . . In short, after six years, if the LAPD was at all brutal and corrupt, shootings should be down, use of force down, complaints down, sustained complaints up and more officers prosecuted.

But, Parry asserts, shootings have increased 15%, complaints have increased, but guilty findings have decreased. Indeed, the “only statistic that appears to have tracked as the activists indicated is use of force. On a per-100-arrests basis, serious use of force is down about 20 percent.”

Parry asserts that these complicated data can be boiled down to a simple cause: “Cops are fleeing in record numbers [because of the increased supervision] . . . As a result, inexperienced cops with unseasoned supervision are using more deadly force and getting more complaints, but the force is deemed acceptable and the complaints are increasingly bogus.”

To my reading, this claim is bogus.

Attrition problems at the LAPD are old – they certainly predate the consent decree, starting as early in the mid-1980s. The problem’s severity has engendered a number of explanations, and solutions, varying from: excessive financial disclosure requirements, bad press due to the Rodney King riots, insufficient funds, a convoluted application process, bad equipment and physical plant, and even affirmative action policies. Shucks, the only explanation not offered is that LA’s famously sunny climate makes officers too happy to effectively walk the beat.

Even were attrition to be exacerbated by the consent decree, Parry still hasn’t come close to making his claim stick.

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