Category: Accounting

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Brian Tamanaha’s Straw Men (Part 2): Who’s Cherry Picking?

(Reposted from Brian Leiter’s Law School Reports)

BT Claim 2:  Using more years of data would reduce the earnings premium

BT Quote: There is no doubt that including 1992 to 1995 in their study would measurabley reduce the ‘earnings premium.'” 

Response:  Using more years of historical data is as likely to increase the earnings premium as to reduce it

We have doubts about the effect of more data, even if Professor Tamanaha does not.

Without seeing data that would enable us to calculate earnings premiums, we can’t know for sure if introducing more years of comparable data would increase our estimates of the earnings premium or reduce it.

The issue is not simply the state of the legal market or entry level legal hiring—we must also consider how our control group of bachelor’s degree holders (who appear to be similar to the law degree holders but for the law degree) were doing.   To measure the value of a law degree, we must measure earnings premiums, not absolute earnings levels.

As a commenter on Tamanaha’s blog helpfully points out:

“I think you make far too much of the exclusion of the period from 1992-1995. Entry-level employment was similar to 1995-98 (as indicated by table 2 on page 9).

But this does not necessarily mean that the earnings premium was the same or lower. One cannot form conclusions about all JD holders based solely on entry-level employment numbers. As S&M’s data suggests, the earnings premium tends to be larger during recessions and their immediate aftermath and the U.S. economy only began an economic recovery in late 1992.

Lastly, even if you are right about the earnings premium from 1992-1995, what about 1987-91 when the legal economy appeared to be quite strong (as illustrated by the same chart referenced above)? Your suggestion to look at a twenty year period excludes this time frame even though it might offset the diminution in the earnings premium that would allegedly occur if S&M considered 1992-95.”

There is nothing magical about 1992.  If good quality data were available, why not go back to the 1980s or beyond?   Stephen Diamond and others make this point.

The 1980s are generally believed to be a boom time in the legal market.  Assuming for the sake of the argument that law degree earnings premiums are pro-cyclical (we are not sure if they are), inclusion of more historical data going back past 1992 is just as likely to increase our earnings premium as to reduce it.  Older data might suggest an upward trend in education earnings premiums, which could mean that our assumption of flat earnigns premiums may be too conservative. Leaving aside the data quality and continuity issues we discussed before (which led us to pick 1996 as our start year), there is no objective reason to stop in the early 1990s instead of going back further to the 1980s.

Our sample from 1996 to 2011 includes both good times and bad for law graduates and for the overall economy, and in every part of the cycle, law graduates appear to earn substantially more than similar individuals with only bachelor’s degrees.

 

Cycles

 

This might be as good a place as any to affirm that we certainly did not pick 1996 for any nefarious purpose.  Having worked with the SIPP before and being aware of the change in design, we chose 1996 purely because of the benefits we described here.  Once again, should Professor Tamanaha or any other group wish to use the publicly available SIPP data to extend the series farther back, we’ll be interested to see the results.

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Brian Tamanaha’s Straw Men (Part 1): Why we used SIPP data from 1996 to 2011

(Reposted from Brian Leiter’s Law School Reports)

 

BT Claim:  We could have used more historical data without introducing continuity and other methodological problems

BT quote:  “Although SIPP was redesigned in 1996, there are surveys for 1993 and 1992, which allow continuity . . .”

Response:  Using more historical data from SIPP would likely have introduced continuity and other methodological problems

SIPP does indeed go back farther than 1996.  We chose that date because it was the beginning of an updated and revitalized SIPP that continues to this day.  SIPP was substantially redesigned in 1996 to increase sample size and improve data quality.  Combining different versions of SIPP could have introduced methodological problems.  That doesn’t mean one could not do it in the future, but it might raise as many questions as it would answer.

Had we used earlier data, it could be difficult to know to what extent changes to our earnings premiums estimates were caused by changes in the real world, and to what extent they were artifacts caused by changes to the SIPP methodology.

Because SIPP has developed and improved over time, the more recent data is more reliable than older historical data.  All else being equal, a larger sample size and more years of data are preferable.  However, data quality issues suggest focusing on more recent data.

If older data were included, it probably would have been appropriate to weight more recent and higher quality data more heavily than older and lower quality data.  We would likely also have had to make adjustments for differences that might have been caused by changes in survey methodology.  Such adjustments would inevitably have been controversial.

Because the sample size increased dramatically after 1996, including a few years of pre 1996 data would not provide as much new data or have the potential to change our estimates by nearly as much as Professor Tamanaha believes.  There are also gaps in SIPP data from the 1980s because of insufficient funding.

These issues and the 1996 changes are explained at length in the Survey of Income and Program Participation User’s Guide.

Changes to the new 1996 version of SIPP include:

Roughly doubling the sample size

This improves the precision of estimates and shrinks standard errors

Lengthening the panels from 3 years to 4 years

This reduces the severity of the regression to the median problem

Introducing computer assisted interviewing to improve data collection and reduce errors or the need to impute for missing data

Introducing oversampling of low income neighborhoods
This mitigates response bias issues we previously discussed, which are most likely to affect the bottom of the distribution
New income topcoding procedures were instituted with the 1996 Panel
This will affect both means and various points in the distribution
Topcoding is done on a monthly or quarterly basis, and can therefore undercount end of year bonuses, even for those who are not extremely high income year-round

Most government surveys topcode income data—that is, there is a maximum income that they will report.  This is done to protect the privacy of high-income individuals who could more easily be identified from ostensibly confidential survey data if their incomes were revealed.

Because law graduates tend to have higher incomes than bachelor’s, topcoding introduces downward bias to earnings premiums estimates. Midstream changes to topcoding procedures can change this bias and create problems with respect to consistency and continuity.

Without going into more detail, the topcoding procedure that began in 1996 appears to be an improvement over the earlier topcoding procedure.

These are only a subset of the problems extending the SIPP data back past 1996 would have introduced.  For us, the costs of backfilling data appear to outweigh the benefits.  If other parties wish to pursue that course, we’ll be interested in what they find, just as we hope others were interested in our findings.

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Call for Papers: National Business Law Scholars Conference

I am delighted to pass along the following notice from the organizers of the National Business Law Scholars Conference.  I’m also honored to report that they have asked me to deliver the keynote at this year’s conference, and I look forward to doing so.  

Deadline Extended to May 31

We have received an enthusiastic response to the Call for Papers for the National Business Law Scholars Conference, scheduled for June 12-13, at The Ohio State University School of Law.  We will have additional openings for anyone who would like to make a presentation but has not yet responded.  Thus, we have extended the deadline to MAY 31st.  See the Call for Papers, re-posted below with the extended deadline date, for details on how to submit:

National Business Law Scholars Conference: Call-for-Papers

The National Business Law Scholars Conference (NBLSC)  will be held on Wednesday, June 12th and Thursday, June 13th at The Ohio State University Michael E. Moritz College of Law in Columbus, Ohio.  This is the fourth annual meeting of the NBLSC, a conference which annually draws together dozens of legal scholars from across the United States and around the world.  We welcome all on-topic submissions and will attempt to provide the opportunity for everyone to actively participate.  Junior scholars and those considering entering the legal academy are especially encouraged to participate.

To submit a presentation, email Professor Eric C. Chaffee at echaffee1@udayton.edu with an abstract or paper by MAY 31, 2013.  Please title the email “NBLSC Submission – {Name}”.  If you would like to attend, but not present, email Professor Chaffee with an email entitled “NBLSC Attendance”.  Please specify in your email whether you are willing to serve as a commentator or moderator.  A conference schedule will be circulated in late May.

Conference Organizers:

Barbara Black (University of Cincinnati)
Eric C. Chaffee (University of Dayton)
Steven M. Davidoff (The Ohio State University)

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Publicity and Illegality in Organizations

“Corporations do not commit crimes, people do,” would be a good thing for everyone to remember but those who like to vilify the corporation too readily forget.  A valuable new research paper canvasses much of the literature about wrongdoing by people in corporations. Rosa Abrantes-Metz and Danny Sokol focus on cartels that violate antitrust laws, shifting the lens from the firm level to those within a corporation and offering a broader review of screens useful to combat illegality.  It’s a great contribution to and synthesis of the literature.  

I will draw on its lessons as I revise the current edition of my accounting textbook written for use in law schools, as well as to reflect on the corporate governance aspects of this problem, addressed in several important passages of my collection of Warren Buffett’s letters to constituents of Berkshire Hathaway.

Buffett’s writings address the tone at the top and promoting a culture of compliance. As CEO, he sends a biannual letter to his managers emphasizing that the most important job of every one of Berkshire Hathaway’s 300,000 employees is preserving Berkshire’s reputation.  For 25 years, that memo has included some version of this sentence:  “We can afford to lose money, even a lot of money, but we can’t afford to lose reputation, even a shred of reputation.”

Another point he repeats will be of special interest to lawyers among our readership.  He says it is not enough to comply with the law or letter of law. Berkshire must apply a stricter test, called the New York Times test: we would be happy to have all our activities written up on the front page of a national newspaper in an article written by an unfriendly reporter.  It is a much more poignant test than whether you comply with a particular antitrust law or accounting principle.

I call the toughest battle to fight concerning compliance the disease of the crowd. A common defense of sketchy behavior is that everyone else is doing it.  In that letter, Buffett explains that such a  response is usually an excuse rather than a reason. If so, the action probably should be avoided.  To implement such a policy, Buffett offers  senior managers a hotline to him directly if they detect even a whiff of dubious behavior. Those managers pass that message down the ranks and establish parallel hotlines from their troops to them.

Above all, once wrongdoing is detected, swift and public action is required. The worst thing managers can do when they discover illegalities by their employees is try to hide it.  In America, people are very forgiving of substantive errors or even wrongs. They are relentlessly unforgiving of attempts at evasion, duplicity, or hiding things.  (“It’s the cover up, stupid.”) Although Jonathan Macey has recently released an interesting book lamenting the decline of reputation as the constraint portrayed in economic models, it remains a powerful force.  Read More

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Auditing’s Snafu: Foreign Secrecy and Impaired Audits

Many US companies maintain substantial global operations, with increasing volumes of business done in China; many foreign companies are listed on US securities exchanges.  This cross-border expansion makes the reliability of financial reports created in foreign locales increasingly important.  Yet, in tandem with this cross-border expansion, there have been increasing assertions abroad, including in China, that local secrecy laws restrict access to the work papers of auditors, frustrating the ability of US federal authorities to enforce US securities laws designed to promote financial reporting integrity.

The snafu was joined this week in a case where the SEC is seeking access to audit work papers of a Deloitte affiliate in Shagnhai but the firm refuses.  The firm’s lawyers cite Morrison v. National Australia Bank, the 2010 SCOTUS ruling that, absent explicit language, federal statutes are seen as intended to apply within the US, not be extraterritorial.  It said that the federal securities laws lacked such explication.   

Furthermore, for Deloitte to comply with the SEC’s requests, the lawyers said, would risk committing a serious crime under Chinese law, one punishable by imprisonment. Deloitte’s lawyers say that the combination of Morrison and Chinese secrecy laws puts the records beyond the SEC’s reach.

Lawyers for the SEC object that these points cannot possibly be seen to limit the SEC’s administrative subpoena power under which it has demanded the Deloitte documents. But, during oral argument, the SEC’s lawyers did not acquit themselves well, according to one report, as they could not readily cite the precise legal authority supporting their position. 

Deloitte says there isn’t one and that the appropriate procedure to handle such cross-border securities matters is by diplomacy not enforcement. In this view, the SEC is wrong to proceed against Deloitte in court but must dispatch appropriate US officials to broker a resolution with Chinese regulatory counterparts.

The stakes are high for both sides in the case, of course, and for investors and students of auditing. After all,  audits endow financial statements with credibility. Shareholders are willing to pay for audits in exchange for that credence value.  But if an auditor’s work papers are top secret, inaccessible even to a regulatory overseer, how much of an audit’s credence value is lost? Is it still rational for shareholders to condone paying the auditor’s fee?

When the credibility of financial statements are in doubt, investors should shun their issuer and sell the stock.  A critical mass of shareholders of companies affected by this snafu might do well to follow that old-fashioned Wall Street Rule. If they did, then, along with such companies, the need to resort to either a diplomatic or enforcement solution would disappear. Read More

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The Essays of Warren Buffett: Third Edition

It’s a pleasure to report that this weekend marks the release of the third edition of The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America.  Originally published as the centerpiece of a symposium sponsored by Cardozo Law Review in 1997 at which Warren Buffett debated 20-some law professors (listed after the jump) on every important issue facing corporate America, this book is a thematic arrangement of Buffett’s annual letters to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway from 1977 to the present.

As I explain in my Introduction,  the central theme uniting Buffett’s essays is that the principles of fundamental business analysis, first formulated by his teachers Ben Graham and David Dodd, should guide investment practice. Linked to that theme are management principles that define the proper role of corporate managers as the stewards of invested capital, and the proper role of shareholders as the suppliers and owners of capital. Radiating from these main themes are practical and sensible lessons on the entire range of important business issues, from accounting to mergers to valuation.

The book has particular significance for devotees of behavioral economics who are skeptical of strong claims about market efficiency, as the book provides both the philosophical architecture of value investing and the intellectual defense of that practice, which distinguishes sharply between price and value.
UPDATE:  Read More

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Incorrect Citations

Wonderful as it is to be cited, being cited incorrectly poses a dilemma.  If your article is referenced for a proposition it does not support, what should you do?  Should you alert the author of the piece or the editor of the journal?   Should you ignore it?  Should you correct the reference the next time you publish on the topic?

Perhaps the ideal response varies with the degree of error.   Scholars delight to participate in the discourse, after all, and sometimes a citation that seems incorrect to an author is really  a way to advance the conversation.  A reference in ensuing scholarship explaining that contribution would be apt.   Sometimes a piece is cited for a general point that an author rather than a reader would recognize as a bit afield. No response at all is okay.

But what about a statement that is clearly wrong? Suppose someone makes an assertion that European accounting law is principles based and cites my Vanderbilt Law Review article challenging the whole notion of principles based accounting.   It infuriates me.  I want to write to the author and editor to object.  But should I? Should  I care?

The problem is even worse than appears, because while I am particularly sensitive to incorrect citations to my own work, I also see incorrect citations to the work of others with which I’m familiar.  It appears that many writers and editors today cite things without really reading them.  It seems as though someone should say something.  But who?  And to whom?

Nordstrom on Global Outlaws

I was recently listening to a podcast by Carolyn Nordstrom of her 2008 Franke Lecture in the Humanities, Emergent(cies).  Nordstrom discusses the extraordinary power wielded by those in control of an underground economy of weapons, drugs, and human trafficking.  Paul Farmer attested to Nordstrom’s extraordinary dedication to ferreting out the transactions that knit together so many imperiled and privileged lives.  I look forward to reading her book Global Outlaws.  This excerpt describes her aims in it:

I am interested in the intersections of crime, finance, and power in activities that produce something of value: monetary, social, and cultural capital, power, patronage, survival. . . . Public media focus on . . . aggressive individuals under the sensational banner of “crime,” yet this interpersonal violence constitutes a small percentage of the universe of criminal actions. Smuggling cigarettes brings in far greater profits and economic repercussions. Robbing an entire country or controlling a transnational profiteering empire is the gold standard of crime.

Read More

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Young Business Law Scholar Call for Papers

The Center for Law, Economics & Finance (C-LEAF) at The George Washington University Law School has announced its third annual Junior Faculty Business and Financial Law Workshop and Junior Faculty Scholarship Prizes.  This year’s Workshop will be held on April 5-6, 2013 at GW in Washington.

The Workshop supports and recognizes the work of young legal scholars in accounting, banking, bankruptcy, corporations, economics, finance and securities, while promoting interaction among them and selected senior faculty. By providing a forum for the exchange of creative ideas in these areas, C-LEAF aims to encourage new and innovative scholarship.

I’ve participated in both previous Workshops and can attest that participants have benefited from the exchange of ideas and getting acquiainted with newer scholars.  About 100 papers are submitted and the C-LEAF faculty select about 10 for presentaiton.  At the Workshop, senior scholars comment on each paper, followed by a general discussion.

Three papers receive Junior Faculty Scholarship Prizes of $3,000, $2,000, and $1,000, respectively. All prize winners will be invited to become Fellows of C-LEAF.  C-LEAF makes no publication commitment, but chosen papers are featured on its website as part of the C-LEAF Working Paper series.   Read More

Penn State Scandal: Could a Corporate Compliance Model Have Prevented It?

The Penn State scandal has become ever more shocking with each new revelation. My colleague Kathleen Boozang argues that it is time for higher ed to learn from other large enterprises about the importance of compliance:

It appears that even now, Penn State lacks a compliance program, the creation of which Special Investigative Counsel Freeh’s Report recommends. Previously limited to financial fraud and HR issues, a June 21, 2012 posting by Penn State’s internal auditor announces a poster redesign advertising its hotline number, to which any ethical or legal concerns can now be reported.  Important will be training throughout the university regarding the law’s protection of whistleblowers, about which, according to Freeh’s Report, top university leaders were unaware.

While it is stunning that, even now, Penn State has not advanced further in setting up these protective measures, it is fair to say that much of higher ed has been slow to adopt compliance best practices common to the healthcare sector and most business entities.

In related news, the Institute of Internal Auditors met in Boston last week. It looks like they will need to play an increasing role in the higher education setting, especially if internal compliance methods are not mere “rituals of verification.”