Just a quick thought about the Court’s certiorari denials today. All eyes now turn to the Sixth Circuit, where a case is pending that could produce an opinion upholding same-sex marriage prohibitions. Depending on when that opinion comes down, the Supreme Court could resolve the constitutional issue this Term. Or perhaps next Term.
Or not. The Sixth Circuit rarely misses an opportunity to go en banc. If the panel opinion is taken en banc, then who knows when that opinion would reach the Justices. Perhaps the losers in the Sixth Circuit will not request en banc review (I don’t know if the Sixth ever goes en banc sua sponte), but that is far from clear.
Bottom line–don’t expect a Supreme Court decision on this until 2016 at the earliest. That might be bad news the Republican presidential nominee, who may have to take an unpopular stand saying no to same-sex marriage into the general election.