Some thoughts on the election
posted by Howard Wasserman
My political views have been made obvious in this forum in the past, so I’m pretty happy this morning. A couple of random thoughts.
1) My confidence level picked up around 5 p.m. yesterday afternoon when I picked my daughter up from school; that’s when I heard the results of the “election” at her school, which went 125-75 for Obama. As we all know, as Temple Beth Am Day School goes, so goes the country.
2) We had a split decision on sports predictors. A National League team won the World Series, which means a Democratic President; this is now 17/27 (62.9%). On the other hand, the Redskins lost at home on Sunday, their final home game before the Election, but the incumbent party retained the White House; this is now 17/19 (89 %). I have to admit, my anxiety level actually rose after that game.
3) Does this result suggest that independent expenditures by outside groups are not all there is to elections? And that Citizens United is not the death knell of democracy and otherwise the root of all that is wrong with the country? Republican Super PACS threw big money at six races–five Senate races and the presidency–and lost all six. Perhaps running non-stop ads for two months is not the way to appeal to voters, so simply throwing lots of money into the mix does not ensure electoral success. Or is Obama uniquely successful in organizing on the ground and at gathering large numbers of small donations? So while that organization could overcome unlimited individual and corporate PAC money, perhaps massive spending will make all the difference in four years, when Obama leaves the scene. [Update: To the list of "money can't buy all," I should add Linda McMahon, who spent $40-$ 50 million of WWE money in an unsuccessful Senate bid (which follows another $ 40-$50 million spent on a previous unsuccessful Senate bid].
4) What happens with the Supreme Court? Do Scalia and Kennedy try to hang on until 2017? Does Ginsburg step aside after OT 2013 (in June 2014) to give Obama the appointment? And does Obama (potentially with 56-seat support and the possibility of filibuster reform in the Senate) make judgeships a higher priority in his second term?
5) Speaking of the Court: A comment on one poll-aggregation blog said that Obama owed his reelection to John Roberts. While the direct causation is dubious, of course, there is a point there. Popular or not (and I still believe the law will increase in popularity as it is implemented over the next several years), this was a signal legislative achievement; to have it invalidated would have left a gaping hole in his record that the public might not have forgiven. Unless he had run against the Court (something Democrats don’t do well), he would have been hit hard with charges of “he rammed through this unpopular law that also was unconstitutional.”
6) Finally, I must admit to one personal/professional perspective on this election. FIU’s outstanding dean is Alex Acosta, an Assistant Attorney General and U.S. Attorney under George W. Bush. He might have been (I’m guessing at this completely–he and I have never spoken about it) a potential short-lister for either a high executive position or a judgeship under a President Romney (Alex is a pragmatist and, I believe, would be a great trial judge). So I’m happy that this election means four more years–of our current deanship and thus continued advancement for this law school.