One final sports “predictor” of the presidential election: The winner of The Game–a Harvard win means a Democratic president, a Yale win means a Republican president. This held form this year, as Harvard won 34-24 ^[1].

More broadly, since they have been playing since 1875, we actually have some data to work with.

• Since the origins of the rivalry, there have been 35 presidential elections and 32 games (no games in 1888, 1894, or 1940), this has held 20 times (62 %–not that impressive). That includes the Harvard Beats Yale 29-29 ^[2] tie in 1968. Maybe that election should have gone to the House of Representatives.

• Over the last 18 elections and 17 games going back to 1940 (again, no game in 1944 because of World War II), it has held 14 times (82 %–much better).

• In my lifetime, going back 12 elections and 12 games to 1968, it has held 9 times (75 %).

• Over the last 9 elections going back to 1980 (call it my political lifetime), it has held 8 times (89 %); the only miss was W’s reelection in 2004.

Of course, since The Game usually is played in mid-to-late November, this is less a predictor than an ex post correlation. Except in 2000 ^[3], that is, when they played while the Florida debacle was playing out. Maybe we should not have been so surprised when Bush v. Gore came out as it did.

1 Comment To "Final sports/election link"

#1 Comment By Joe On November 20, 2012 @ 3:35 pm