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Final sports/election link
Posted By Howard Wasserman On November 19, 2012 @ 10:31 pm In Uncategorized | 1 Comment
One final sports “predictor” of the presidential election: The winner of The Game–a Harvard win means a Democratic president, a Yale win means a Republican president. This held form this year, as Harvard won 34-24 .
More broadly, since they have been playing since 1875, we actually have some data to work with.
• Since the origins of the rivalry, there have been 35 presidential elections and 32 games (no games in 1888, 1894, or 1940), this has held 20 times (62 %–not that impressive). That includes the Harvard Beats Yale 29-29  tie in 1968. Maybe that election should have gone to the House of Representatives.
• Over the last 18 elections and 17 games going back to 1940 (again, no game in 1944 because of World War II), it has held 14 times (82 %–much better).
• In my lifetime, going back 12 elections and 12 games to 1968, it has held 9 times (75 %).
• Over the last 9 elections going back to 1980 (call it my political lifetime), it has held 8 times (89 %); the only miss was W’s reelection in 2004.
Of course, since The Game usually is played in mid-to-late November, this is less a predictor than an ex post correlation. Except in 2000 , that is, when they played while the Florida debacle was playing out. Maybe we should not have been so surprised when Bush v. Gore came out as it did.
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URLs in this post:
 Harvard won 34-24: http://www.boston.com/news/local/connecticut/2012/11/17/harvard-beats-yale-wins-the-game/WcYMZkFjpZRDQBlHNR8PRM/story.html
 Harvard Beats Yale 29-29: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1286800/
 Except in 2000: http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/story?id=100166&page=1#.UKr3SYU5iqQ
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