FantasySCOTUS.net Predictions for the Final 14 Cases
posted by Josh Blackman
The end of the October 2010 Supreme Court Term is almost here. Here are the FantasySCOTUS Prediction Tracker picks for the remaining 14 cases. I divided the cases into two categories: first, the cases where we are virtually certainty of the outcome (at a 99% confidence level); second, the cases where we are not certain of the outcome. If you are interested in learning more about FantasySCOTUS as a crowdsourced prediction market, please take a look at an essay I co-authored. I will compare these predictions to Tom Goldstein’s predictions at SCOTUSBlog in tomorrow’s Supreme Court Insider.
Confident
| FantasySCOTUS | Certainty | |
| Brown v. EMA | Affirm | Yes at 99% (83%+/-4.52) |
| Wal-Mart v. Dukes | Reverse | Yes at 99% (75%+/-12.3) |
| Az Free Enterprise/McComish v. Bennett | Reverse | Yes at 99% (72%+/-14) |
| CSX v. McBride | Affirm | Yes at 99% (85%+/-17.3) |
| Sorrell v. IMS | Affirm | Yes at 99% (77%+/-18.3) |
| Am. Elec. Power Co. v. Conn. | Reverse | Yes at 99% (70%+/-18.4) |
| Goodyear v. Brown | Reverse | Yes at 99% (66%+/-12.1) |
Not Confident
| FantasySCOTUS | Certainty | |
| Stern v. Marshall | Affirm | No (52% +/-12.1 for 90%) |
| Freeman v. US | Reverse | No (52%+/-11.6 for 90%) |
| Duryea v. Guarnieri | Affirm | No (53%+/-14 for 90%) |
| Turner v. Rogers | Reverse | No (56%+/-14 for 90%) |
| Bullcoming v. New Mexico | Reverse | No (57%+/-9.53 for 90%) |
| McIntyre v. Nicastro | Affirm | No (55%+/-8.35 for 90%) |
June 19, 2011 at 5:28 pm
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