Mispredicting and the Philadelphia Eagles
posted by Dave Hoffman
There’s a large, and burgeoning, literature on the ways that individuals mispredict their own happiness. The classic examples are the loss of happiness from injury (becoming a paraplegic) and the gain in happiness from winning a lottery. In both scenarios, we mispredict how actual individuals experience the losses and gains. Another well-known result is one of particular salience today: individuals aren’t as unhappy when their sports teams lose as they predicted they would be, nor does their happiness last as long as they anticipated. Scholars argue that we adapt, quickly, and revert to our baseline happiness.
I’ve learned from the work of my colleague Peter Huang, and my former colleague Rick Swedloff, that we should all be a little bit more skeptical about the hedonic adaptation literature, and its adaptation to legal policy. Here’s a particular example. The literature might predict that when my Eagles beat the (hated) NY Giants today to advance to the NFC Championship, I would be joyful briefly, but then would adapt, so that I’d be moderately pleased by dinner and phlegmatic by the late evening. Indeed, on this theory, I might have started to adapt as soon as it was clear (by the mid-fourth-quarter that the Eagles weren’t going to execute their long-planned choking maneuver. And, I certainly would be aware that this win only sets me up for a greater feeling of disappointment. next week, when the Birds lose to a decidedly inferior Cardinals team. If behaving at all rationally, I should price that anticipated regret into my current mood.
Not so. I still feel pretty darn good. And, though I feel for certain Giants fans, I have concluded that the forces of evil once again have lost a battle today. Philly is on the march.
January 11, 2009 at 9:25 pm
Posted in: Behavioral Law and Economics
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Responses (4)
Liz - January 11, 2009 at 11:41 pm
I agree. Especially in a season when an Eagles playoff run seemed improbable as little as a month ago, my mood has definitely been better (and has not declined) since the Birds’ win this afternoon. Additionally, I find myself cautiously optimistic about next week’s game, although that could easily be considered irrational in this town!
john - January 12, 2009 at 12:59 am
Way to go Eagles!!! I’m having real fun watching these playoffs upset. More importantly I’m watching with my cousins from Australia here in Malaysia, guess what??? It’s back to back punting victory to see both Graham and Rocca, facing off in next weeks Championship game.
I will admit that I have no regrets skipping a day from work just watch the match. It was worthwhile.
Aussie!!! Aussie!!!
John
http://mundoalbiceleste.blogspot.com
wren - January 12, 2009 at 7:44 am
Damn your eyes.
Kaimi - January 12, 2009 at 9:39 pm
Yes, but you Eagles fans are used to playoff ups and downs. Try to imagine how you’d be feeling if your team had just doubled its total playoff victories in history with this two-game run.
As for the game, I hope it turns out as you predict. Most pundits are picking the Eagles to win. So they’re facing an underdog, on the road — not a good combination.
There have been lots of stories in this year’s playoffs. The least-winningest NFC championship game in history (two nine-win teams). The uselessness of the bye. The prevalence of birds.
I’m just happy to have the first two Cards home playoff games (last week and next) in sixty years.
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