The Mysterious Science of Bestselling Books
posted by Daniel Solove
As one with a forthcoming book for a general audience, I’ve long wondered about what it takes to make a book a bestseller. A few weeks ago, the New York Times had a fascinating article addressing the question of the magical formula that turns a book into a bestseller beyond having the words “Harry Potter” in the title.
I was hoping for an answer. But instead of an answer, the article suggests that even the publishers don’t know.
The article begins by describing the novel Prep, a wildly successful bestseller which most publishers had passed on when it was submitted. Random House eventually published it, doing an initial print run of 13,000 copies and giving the author a $40,000 advance:
”Prep” proceeded to confound all expectations by making the New York Times best-seller list a month after publication. The hardcover, with a cover price of $21.95, eventually sold more than 133,000 copies, according to Nielsen BookScan, which captures about 70 percent of sales. The paperback also became a best seller, selling 329,000 copies to date. Foreign rights have been sold for publication in 25 languages, and Paramount has optioned the movie rights.
The book was buoyed by favorable press and word of mouth. But other books receive similar attention and go nowhere, so why was ”Prep” so successful? Conversely, what causes a book that was all the rage at auction time to fall flat at bookstores?
Brian DeFiore, a literary agent, asks: ”Is it the cover? The title? The buzz wasn’t there? Timing? It wasn’t that good?”
The answer is that no one really knows. ”It’s an accidental profession, most of the time,” said William Strachan, editor in chief at Carroll & Graf Publishers. ”If you had the key, you’d be very wealthy. Nobody has the key.”
The article goes on to muse at why book publishers lack much ability in determining whether their books will be successful or not:
The hunt for the key has been much more extensive in other industries, which have made a point of using new technology to gain a better understanding of their customers. Television stations have created online forums for viewers and may use the information there to make programming decisions. Game developers solicit input from users through virtual communities over the Internet. Airlines and hotels have developed increasingly sophisticated databases of customers.
Publishers, by contrast, put up Web sites where, in some cases, readers can sign up for announcements of new titles. But information rarely flows the other way — from readers back to the editors. . . .
But results are not spectacular, for an industry that had $34.6 billion in net revenue in 2005. Net profit margins hover in the mid-single digits for the $14 billion trade segment, which covers adult, juvenile and mass market titles, with an estimated 70 percent of titles in the red.
The industry does follow trends to pursue growth, but when it comes to acquisitions, methods have not changed much in hundreds of years, says Al Greco, a professor of marketing at Fordham University. . . .
All of the major houses have also lost on big bets. One of the highest advances ever paid was more than $8 million for a proposal that became ”Thirteen Moons,” the second novel by Charles Frazier. He is the author of ”Cold Mountain,” which sold 1.6 million copies in hardcover.
Random House printed 750,000 copies of ”Thirteen Moons” for the hardcover release in October. The book became a best seller, but it has sold only 240,000 copies so far, according to Nielsen BookScan. That would account for less than $1 million of earned royalties, under standard contract terms. The paperback will be out next month, further diminishing hopes of selling out even the initial hardcover print run. . . .
There are two ways for a book to become a best seller. One is to make it on to a best-seller list by selling many copies in a week. Other books sell steadily over months and years, eventually outselling many official best sellers. ”Unanswered Cries,” a true-crime book by Tom French, was acquired in 1989 by St. Martin’s for $30,000. It now has 400,000 copies in print in paperback and sold at least 31,000 copies last year alone.
These older titles are crucial to profits because marketing and acquisition costs have usually already been recouped. Yet publishers focus much more attention on the hardcover release. As they prepare to introduce a book, any combination of timing, packaging, marketing and other factors could help ignite the mysterious spark that leads to best-sellerdom.
Contributing to the success of ”The Secret,” for example, could be any or all of the following: the subject, the title, the initial DVD release, the marketing campaign, the power of the Internet, ”Oprah” and the latest trend.
But ”The Secret” is only the most recent book of its type. ”Many people have spent lots of money trying to publish the book ‘The Secret’ has become,” says Susan Petersen Kennedy, president of the Penguin Group. ”A lot of books are just like that that haven’t worked.” . . . .
Most publishers, though, continue to gather data on sales and not much else, though past performance is certainly no guarantee of future results, even from the same author.
After ”Prep” became a best seller, Random House signed a two-book deal with Ms. Sittenfeld for a multiple of her $40,000 ”Prep” advance that she would not reveal.
Her second coming-of-age novel, ”The Man of My Dreams,” was published last May, and again the advance payment and sales haven’t matched up. According to Nielsen BookScan, ”The Man of My Dreams” has sold 36,000 copies in hardcover and 6,000 in paperback.
Ms. Sittenfeld says she is reminded of something she heard from an editor: ”People think publishing is a business, but it’s a casino.”
If the article is correct, then I find it quite surprising that book publishers haven’t done more to understand their market. Perhaps it is impossible to predict what will make a book sell. It’s not quality, as many fantastic books don’t sell well, and many terrible books fly off the shelves. I doubt that it is marketing that catapults a book to the bestseller list. Few publishers expend much resources in marketing — and those resources go only to a select few books. If only somebody knew the answer. . . .
July 10, 2007 at 12:01 am
Posted in: Articles and Books
Print This Post
Responses (3)
Matt - July 9, 2007 at 11:38 pm
I think you should change your book title to _The Hourly Orgasm Weight-Loss Plan_. If that wouldn’t make it a best-seller nothing would. (Or you could always get on Oprah!)
Keith - July 10, 2007 at 7:59 am
What you’re referring to is precisely the phenomenon that Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes in The Black Swan. Unknown unknowns. Largely unpredictable events that have a tremendous impact.
I believe that book sales are one of the very examples that he cites. Once one moves away from the well-known authors and series, it’s exceptionally difficult to predict which books will remain atop the charts, and which will fall flat.
Frank - July 10, 2007 at 2:58 pm
I’ll second the Black Swan recommendation. This page may also be of interest:
http://nymag.com/news/features/2007/profit/32906/
“Out of every eight books, one is very profitable, one is very unprofitable, and six either break even or lose money.”
“Best Ways to Make Money: Underpay writers. ‘The most-profitable books are highly successful authors early in their career with a contract that doesn’t reflect their success,’ says Olson. Some writers sign multi-book contracts, which pay off big if the first book’s a blockbuster.”
Leave a Reply