Inconceivable!
posted by Dave Hoffman
Three recent events got me to thinking about our reactions to improbable events.
1. Last Friday, I hit the hard-six twice in one roll at an excursion to Atlantic City, the first five dollar bet having been parlayed. The odds of this happening are long (9:1 x 9:1). In retrospect, it is pretty obvious that the dice came down as they did because I had shut my eyes once they left the shooter’s hand. I repeated this same maneuver the rest of the trip.
2. Yesterday, as I sat waiting for the Phillies game to begin, the team held a celebration for the birthday of its extraordinarily strange mascot. The Phillies, for no good reason, decided to tie-in the birthday with the local King Tut exhibit. Six dancing “Egyptian priestesses,” four “Temple guards,” a fire eater, a hula hoop artist, the Phanatic’s “Mummy,” and a belly dancer led the six-foot-six, 300 pound, green monster onto the field. Riding on a camel. I was so horrified by this sight that I put my nose back in a book, hoping that it would disappear. Alas, King Tut himself emerged, painted gold, from a pyramid that had been placed on the pitcher’s mound, and did a loud Steve Martin impression.
3. The Phillies four-four year old pitcher, Jamie Moyer, then proceeded to throw 7 2/3 innings of no-hit ball. An out into the seventh, a young child sitting nearby was reprimanded by a neighbor for whispering the possibility that we were watching history in the making. The bid was broken at the next at bat.
Coincidence? Inconceivable!
(Photo Credit:Mark Robinson )
April 30, 2007 at 11:47 am
Posted in: Behavioral Law and Economics
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Responses (3)
PG - April 30, 2007 at 4:25 pm
The King Tut-Phillies performance sounds almost as bad as a French showgirl performance I once saw that included Hindu mythology.
Steve Vladeck - April 30, 2007 at 5:30 pm
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
Dave Hoffman - April 30, 2007 at 10:39 pm
FWIW, I’ve been reliably informed that the odds of two hard sixes on one roll are, in reality, 100:1.
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